Dr. Sergey Berg, associate professor of computer and data sciences at the University of St. Thomas, was featured in coverage examining chronic wasting disease in Minnesota’s deer population. State data showed prevalence in deer permit areas 646, 647 and 648 reached nearly 6%, closely aligning with Berg’s earlier projection of 5.8% for the region. Wildlife officials said the model accurately anticipated the disease reaching the endemic threshold, where targeted culling is no longer considered effective.
From West Central Tribune:
... modeling by Sergey Berg, associate professor of computer and data sciences at the University of St. Thomas, supported that conclusion. “He was spot on,” said Goreham of the modeling.
Targeted culling is very precise and can be very effective in small areas, Goreham said. Once the prevalence rate reaches 5% in an area the size of a deer permit area, culling is not as effective.
From Outdoor News:
Looking back at the 2026 Minnesota white-tailed deer hunting season, University of St. Thomas Associate Professor Dr. Sergey Berg’s CWD model wasn’t too far off at predicting the disease’s prevalence.
Berg’s model specifically looked at deer permit areas 647 and 648, which make up most of Fillmore County in southeastern Minnesota. This year, the model predicted CWD would be prevalent in about 5.8% of the deer herd in DPAs 647 and 648. That prediction wasn’t far off from the DNR’s rate of about 6% based on the number of harvests and positive cases in those permit areas.
