Renee Buhr, professor of political science and international studies in the College of Arts and Sciences at the University of St. Thomas, spoke with WCCO Radio about Iran’s new leader and how that affects the escalation and longevity of the war in the Middle East.
From the conversation:
Vineeta Sawkar: Give us a little bit of your thoughts on Mojtaba Khamenei as the leader of Iran and what this will mean moving forward.
Renee Buhr: There are a number of aspects to this that I think are particularly interesting. I will begin with the fact that Iran was effectively a failed state in the last days of the other Khamenei leadership. So, choosing his son is potentially doubling down on what was already a failed state. Some of the reasons I refer to it as a failed state is because the vast majority of people had lost their support for Khamenei. There was a severe economic crisis, mass inflation that made food unaffordable, and water resources were so scarce that people were getting one to two hours of water per day if they were lucky. So, doubling down on a failed state is an odd choice.
Sawkar: It sends a strong message to the United States and what this means as we move forward with this war.
Buhr: It does. It’s clear that the existing regime is not going to easily allow for reform. I question how much control they will have over the future of Iran at this point. When you have lost that much legitimacy you can rule through sheer terror, which is what they have been doing … but ultimately some of the people who are supposed to follow orders, say in the IRGC (Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps), are suffering the same misery some of their family members are and maybe even have had family members killed. You might see the lower-level IRGC people turning on the higher ranks, and this selection of Khamenei probably makes that more likely.
Sawkar: It seems like this sets a stage for this to be more extended and tough road ahead with this selection of leader.
Buhr: Absolutely. The hardliners are digging in instead of taking an off-ramp from the war. They are signaling that they want to continue with the war for as long as possible and that they are unwilling to take on any reforms that might make the U.S. back off.
